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When we founded Rebellion Energy Solutions, we set out to bridge the gap between the oil and gas industry and environmental impact work. It’s not often that these two worlds intersect, but we believe that real, lasting change comes when technical expertise and innovative problem-solving are applied to real world challenges. Our work in methane abatement projects, particularly in high-emitting orphan wells, is a testament to that belief. However, as we navigate this space, we’ve found that a crucial piece often goes overlooked: the role of accurate flowing pressure readings in determining stable, and therefore predictable baseline measurements in ensuring reliable carbon credit volume calculations.

Understanding the Carbon Credit Forecasting Challenge

At its core, an abatement credit provides credit for stopping (abating) something that would otherwise continue to negatively impact the climate and environment. That means every credit calculation is based on a forecast, a prediction of what emissions would have been if left unmitigated and forecasts have inherent uncertainty. When it comes to orphan wells, that forecast extends over a 20-year period (ACR methodology), an incredibly long time horizon to accurately predict emissions.

To make credible estimations, we must maximize the quality and reliability of the data we collect today. That means reducing uncertainty wherever possible and taking a highly conservative approach when uncertainty remains. One of the most critical factors in this process is understanding a well’s ability to continue emitting into the future. And that ability is rooted in two key elements: pressure and rate.

Why Pressure and Rate Matter

When we talk about emissions, we’re really talking about a well’s ability to bring hydrocarbons from deep underground to the surface. For that to happen, two conditions must be met: (1) hydrocarbons must be present, and (2) enough energy (pressure) must exist to drive them upward.

Since we already know these wells are leaking, we can confirm hydrocarbons are present. The real question becomes: how much will that well emit over time? And that’s where predictable rate and pressure trends come into play.

A well with a high initial rate might seem like a massive emitter at first glance, but if its pressure is falling sharply, that suggests it lacks the long-term energy to sustain emissions in the long term. On the other hand, a well with a lower rate but increasing pressure could indicate that the leak is restricted and will grow over time (sometimes to dangerous levels). The key is identifying that stable, consistent moment—where both rate and pressure indicate a predictable, long-term trajectory. That’s the baseline we need to establish for accurate carbon credit calculations.

The Misconceptions Around Pressure and Emissions

One of the biggest misconceptions we encounter is the belief that rate alone dictates emissions. People tend to assume a linear relationship: high rate now equals high emissions volumes in the future, and lower rates mean less emissions volumes. But it’s far more complex than that.

Think of it like a grammar school science project. When the volcano initially erupts, it is quite impressive, but the flow of lava quickly dissipates as the reaction loses energy.  Similarly, the rate of emissions now is not a direct one-to-one correlation to a wells future emissions potential, but rather a single data point to be considered alongside other variables to get a full picture.  Now consider the volcano has a very small opening at its peak – rather than spewing red food coloring all at once, it seeps out slowly over an extended period of time.  Either way, the volume of fluid is the same, but with a set crediting period of 20 years, it is critical not to overestimate based on an unsustainable rate.  Flowing pressure is the indicator for long-term viability.  Another common misunderstanding is the assumption that all orphan wells will behave similarly. In reality, wells exist in vastly different conditions. Some are wide open, releasing gas freely into the atmosphere, while others have only minor leaks, constrained by natural barriers. Although these leaks will certainly continue to degrade over time, it adds complexity to a volume associated with a set timeframe.  Factors like historical production data, geological structure, and wellbore integrity all play into emission potential. That’s why technical expertise is so crucial, oil and gas professionals spend their careers understanding these variables and making informed production forecasts. Now, we’re applying that same rigor to carbon abatement.

The Challenge of Educating the Market

As project developers, we spend a significant amount of time educating others (whether it’s registries, policymakers, or buyers) on the nuances of these calculations. And I’ll be honest, it’s one of the hardest parts of our job. Not because people aren’t interested, but because we’re often explaining a deeply technical process to an audience that hasn’t worked in oil and gas engineering.

For example, people frequently ask, “Which measurement tool is best?” But the answer to that question depends on a series of technical considerations that require foundational knowledge. We can’t just give a simple answer without explaining the ‘why’ behind it. That’s why our approach has always been to educate first. Because if we don’t lay that groundwork, misunderstandings and misapplications are inevitable.

The Landowner Perspective and Safety Considerations

Another element that doesn’t get talked about enough is the human side of orphan wells. If a well no longer has an operator, who does it belong to? How does that impact landowners who suddenly find themselves dealing with a leaking well on their property?

For the people living with these wells on their land, the issue isn’t theoretical. It’s real, immediate, and sometimes dangerous. These are industrial sites, and without proper oversight, they pose serious safety risks. I always emphasize this point: wellbores are not playgrounds. Untrained individuals attempting to measure emissions or tamper with equipment can create hazardous situations. Safety has to be a top priority, both for workers in the field and for the landowners impacted by these wells.

The Future of Carbon Credit Accuracy

As the carbon markets mature, we have an opportunity to get this right. That means developing methodologies that truly reflect the science behind forecasting emissions volumes. It means ensuring that additionality and permanence are ironclad. Focusing on wells that genuinely wouldn’t be plugged without intervention and making sure those plugs will endure the test of time. And it means continuously refining our approach as we gather more data and improve our predictive models.

At Rebellion Energy Solutions, we’re committed to bringing oil and gas expertise into the methane abatement space. We know that accuracy matters. Integrity matters. And in an industry that’s still finding its footing, we believe it’s our responsibility to set the standard for doing it right.